The Future Homes Standard is set to triple the heat pump market, putting the plumbing and heating skills pipeline under more pressure than ever before. Harry Budd, Marketing Manager at Logic4training, explores the plumbing skills gap, looking at where we are now, where we need to be and how we get there.
Under the Future Homes Standard (FHS) new homes built from 2028 will produce 75% fewer carbon emissions than today’s standards. Gas boilers are out, heat pumps are in and solar PV will be mandated wherever possible. The question is, does the UK have enough skilled installers to deliver low-carbon technologies at such a scale?
Where are we now?
The plumbing and heating skills shortage has been brewing for years. In 2019, the median age for gas engineers was 55, with as many installers approaching retirement as those remaining in the workforce. Disruption of the apprenticeship system together an over-emphasis on academic career pathways has meant that retirees vastly outnumber new entrants, a problem that is now spiralling due to the rising demands of net zero.
The UK needs more than 73,700 new plumbers by 2032 but apprenticeship pipelines are underperforming. Between 2021 and 2024, drop out rate for apprenticeships was 47% and only 2,100 plumbing apprentices completed their training.
CIPHE has proposed new apprenticeship standards which will see a new Level 2 entry point, opening up the pathway to more learners. However, approval has recently been delayed with no timeline for delivery. Balancing the need to deliver change quickly while getting it right first time remains a challenge.
Meanwhile, demand is shifting fast. UK heat pump sales reached record high in 2025 and under the FHS, the heat pump market is expected to triple, jumping from roughly 100,000 to 300,000 installations per year. The recent conflict in the Middle East has accelerated demand for renewable technologies in the UK, with Octopus reporting a 50% increase in sales of both heat pumps and solar panels since the was began.
Where do we need to be?
The current target for heat pump installations is 450,000 per year by 2030. Over the last few years, policy shifts and indicatives such as the Boiler Upgrade scheme have led to modest growth in retrofit sector, but the FHS will now open up the new build market to heat pumps. Combined with increased installation and low carbon technologies, these new homes will set the standard for future building and contribute to net zero emissions by 2050.
To meet these requirements, the plumbing and heating workforce will need tens of thousands of new entrants and experienced workers upskilling to new technologies. The scope of a plumber will need to move beyond pipework and traditional heating systems, to include heat pumps, wet systems, underfloor heating, renewables integration, MVHR and water efficiency.
Training pathways need to become varied and diverse to meet the needs of school leavers, career changers and experienced workers, combining updated apprenticeship standards with quicker training routes, while maintaining a strong focus on practical skills and training.
So, how can we close the gap?
Stop relying on apprenticeships as the sole solution
Apprenticeships are a natural fit for the plumbing and heating industry due the practical nature of learning, with skills best passed down from experienced mentors and learned on the job. For many employers, financial incentives from the government mean apprenticeships offer good value for money and the opportunity to develop skills from the ground up. However, the 4-year apprenticeship model is not flexible enough to keep pace with demand, a variety of entry routes are needed to attract school leavers, mature students and career changers.
Break the Gas Safe equals plumber misconception
For many newly qualified plumbers, the natural next step is a gas Managed Learning Programme (MLP) and joining the Gas Safe Register. Gas remains the dominant heating source in the UK, suppling more than 80% of home heating. Gas engineers are in high demand and will remain so for many years.
Not all plumbing roles require Gas Safe registration, however, and over emphasis on gas can limit recruitment pools for renewables. Plumbing offers plenty of opportunities for learners to develop expertise in high-value specialisms, such as heating design, renewable energy installations, including air source and ground source heat pumps, greywater and rainwater harvesting, and solar thermal integration.
Expand alternative training pathways
Outside of apprenticeship pathways, in-centre practical training for new entrants can produce job-ready trainees in a matter of months, rather than years. These courses should always include a strong practical element, both in-centre on purpose-built training rigs and through creating a portfolio of work on-the-job. Avoid providers that make unrealistic promises about quick qualifications without practical experience, as these rarely deliver the skills needed for a long-term career.
What qualifications do plumbers need?
For those entering the trade, the starting point is typically a Level 2 Diploma in Plumbing, awarded by bodies such as City & Guilds or LCL Awards. This qualification provides the foundational knowledge and practical skills required for domestic plumbing work.
The next step is to complete an NVQ Level 2 or Level 3, which demonstrates occupational competence in a real working environment and is commonly required for site-based roles.
Beyond core qualifications, specialist certifications can support career development and diversification. Areas such as unvented hot water systems, water regulations and legionella risk management are widely recognised and valued by employers. As the sector evolves, additional training in low-carbon technologies is becoming increasingly important, particularly for those looking to work with heat pumps and integrated renewable systems.
Become a plumber
Apprenticeships are not the only route into the plumbing and heating industry. Alternative entry points exist, designed to deliver flexible training pathways for school leavers and mature learners with existing qualifications or transferable skills, ensuring the industry is open to everyone with the drive to enter it. That’s how we build the low carbon workforce for Net Zero.
https://www.logic4training.co.uk/new-entrants/how-to-become-a-plumber/
