Guilhem Favard, Supply Chain Manager at Brymec, on the global copper shortage, the case for stainless steel and why sticking rigidly to one material is no longer a safe bet.
Copper has been the default material for plumbing, heating and HVAC pipework for so long that many installers barely stop to consider it. That habit is now being tested. Global supply is tightening, prices are climbing and the wider picture suggests the squeeze is structural rather than short-term.
For anyone specifying or installing pipework today, the harder question is whether copper is still the right answer for every job, every time.
What’s actually happening to copper
Copper prices have almost doubled over the last decade, climbing by around 93.6%, with the metal recently trading at record levels of around £10,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange, equivalent to a little over $6 per pound, in Spring 2026. The International Energy Agency projects demand will outstrip supply by almost a third (c.30%) by 2035 if no action is taken. Recent reports say that construction alone will account for almost a quarter (22.9%) of global copper demand by 2040, driven by the need for wiring, plumbing, HVAC and heat pumps. While grids, EVs, EV charging, and data centres all add demand on top. Data centres alone are projected to need around 500,000 tonnes of copper a year by 2030.
Supply is struggling to keep up. The catastrophic mudslide at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine in September last year cut output to less than half of pre-incident capacity, with full restart now potentially delayed until 2028. Grasberg is the world’s second-largest copper mine, responsible for around 4% of global supply. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are also restricting access to the sulphuric acid that refiners depend on. New mines, when they do come online, typically take 10 to 20 years from planning to first production.
The honest summary is that copper remains available, just at a cost and tempo that’s harder to plan around. Lead times are stretching and prices keep climbing, which makes it harder for installers to deliver projects on programme and on budget.
Stainless steel deserves a closer look
In recent years, stainless steel has earned a much wider remit. Modern 316 grade stainless steel is fully suitable for potable water and vented heating systems, and can be specified in place of copper across a wide range of applications.
Stainless steel offers excellent corrosion resistance and a service life of up to 50 years, which makes it well suited to coastal, underground and other demanding environments. It removes the need for repainting and reduces the inspection burden tied to corrosion protection. In areas where copper theft is a real risk, particularly on larger diameter runs, stainless removes the temptation entirely.
Cost has long been the sticking point. Material prices sit higher than copper per metre, though that gap has narrowed as copper has climbed. Modern press-fit systems, are available for both materials, so installation hours and tooling broadly even out. The bigger advantage is price stability, with stainless typically holding a far steadier line than copper, which makes budgeting and tendering more predictable. On larger projects, the lifetime cost picture often favours stainless once factors such as durability, security and reduced maintenance are considered.
The case against dogma
None of this means installers should abandon copper. Copper still has clear advantages on smaller domestic jobs, in retrofit work and where existing skills and tooling are already in place. The point is that single-material thinking is increasingly hard to justify when the supply picture is this volatile.
A good installer carries a mixed toolkit. Copper where it makes sense. Stainless steel where issues of corrosion, theft, scale or longevity are the priority. Heavy duty steel, plastics and composites are employed where the design calls for it. The job is to match the material to the application, the environment and the client’s long-term cost expectations.
That flexible approach only works when it’s planned, specified and documented properly. Undocumented substitutions, mixed-material interfaces and “equal or approved” swaps can quietly invalidate warranties and leave installers carrying liability they never agreed to, as we covered in our last piece for Installer Online.
How Brymec fits in
At Brymec, we stock copper, stainless-steel, heavy-duty steel and plastic systems. Without a horse in the race, we can give installers and specifiers a straight answer about what suits an individual project rather than pushing one particular product line. Our team supports material selection, system compatibility and warranty alignment, and the Brymec Breeze supply model gets stock from factory-to-site without the usual middlemen.
Copper is going to stay volatile for some time. Prices will move, mines will close down or lower their production, affecting supply lines, and geopolitics will intrude. Demand will keep climbing too, as electrification spreads across transport, heating and digital infrastructure. The installers who come through the next few years in good shape will be those who make the deliberate choice to build variety and good documentation into how they specify and source their materials.
