The industry is anticipating government announcements that could affect the day-to-day lives of tradespeople.
Host Todd Glister – Heating Engineer, was joined at InstallerFESTIVAL by Bean Beanland – Director for Growth and External Affairs at the Heat Pump Federation, Dan White – Market Development Director at MCS, Damon Blakemore – Heat Pump Association Installer Representative, Martyn Bridges – Chairman of the Boiler Technical panel in the HHIC, and Nigel Donohue – CEO at the IAA, to find out what installers need to know.
Renewables installs are up
Renewables installations are setting records, with over 300,000 MCS certificates expected to be issued this year. However, heat pump growth has slowed.
Dan White said: “With the MCS data, we see part of the market, but not all of it. If you look at the total scheme, we’re about to get the biggest number ever. We’re about to go through 300,000 certificates this year, having never been 300,000 in a whole year. Heat pumps are up about 10%, but last year was around 30%, so it has slightly slowed.”
Bean Beanland added: “MCS only sees part of the picture, so the current data that we’re getting from manufacturer sales for the first half of this year suggests an increase of 28%, but last year it was significantly more. So there is a softening.”
Damon Blakemore said: “From an installer perspective, I think it’s busiest it’s ever been. Inquiries are just crazy, it’s growing week after week.”
Insulation and fabric measures are very healthy
All heating systems will be more efficient in properties with better insulation. This will ensure the property will have less heat loss, so running costs will be lower. Installations of insulation and fabric measures are still very healthy, as Nigel Donahue explained:
“Cavity installations are sitting around 52,000 a year, loft is 97,000 and 16,000 room in the roof installs. We talk about minimum insulation to install a heat pump, and the message went from fabric first to fabric last. I think we need to get that fabric right. When we design a heat pump, we need to take it into consideration that building envelope. We’ve got to get schemes out there that still provide that sweet spot, between doing what’s necessary to the fabric, and sizing the heat pump correctly, because that’s the best benefit for the homeowner.”
Clean Heat Market Mechanism entering the second year
The Clean Heat Market Mechanism (CHMM) is a government policy requiring boiler manufacturers to sell a percentage of heat pumps along with their boilers. Introduced in 2025, the scheme will enter its second year in March 2026. The expectation is that this will grow the heat pump market, but there are concerns that this policy is overly focused on supply-side interventions rather than addressing consumer demand, and could lead to higher boiler prices.
Martyn Bridges explained: “So the idea behind this policy is that you will match a percentage of your boiler sales with heap pumps. Your target is based on everything over 20,000 boilers, and presently that percentage is 6%, so if you sell 200,000 boilers a year, you have to sell about 11,500 heat pumps to meet your quota. If you don’t meet your quota you can either pay a fine, which currently is going to be 500 pounds for every one you miss, or you can buy a credit from another heat pump manufacturer. If, in total, 1.4million boilers are sold this year, that means that through this mechanism about 80,000-90,000 heat pumps must be sold through this route. That percentage is going up, so next year it is planned to be 8%.”
The Future Homes and Buildings Standards
The Future Homes and Building Standards will be the new rules for how new build homes will be built, with a focus on vastly reducing carbon emissions.
Bean Beanland said: “The future home standard is actually a rewriting of the Code for Sustainable Homes that we should have had in 2016. The tragedy is we’ve spent the last 10 years building homes that will need to be retrofitted.
“This isn’t a ban on gas but it’s going to be so difficult to put gas into new build properties. This will drive heat pump deployment of various types, and it is not just about air source monoblocs. Ground source heat pumps will be an attractive option, and it could drive solar PV and that market as well.
Martyn Bridges agreed: “Absolutely, so it should. The perfect home for a heat pump is a brand new house that you are constructing.”
Transitioning gas engineers from boilers to heat pumps
One of the challenges for the industry is to convert the traditional base of heating engineers from gas and oil boilers, to renewables. While they are busy, it is tough for them to find time to obtain the training and paperwork to work with heat pumps and take advantage of incentives like the boiler upgrade scheme.
Damon Blakemore said: “I’ve always said this is a big issue for the industry, and something that we don’t look enough. The majority of the existing heating installer workforce here in the UK are gas trained. I was in a lucky position where I didn’t have a big base of gas customers to transfer, so my way into renewables was easier. As an industry, we’re now asking good engineers who have been doing gas for 10,15 years, to stop doing that, and do something new instead. That’s the hard transition, because all your money comes into the business from you gas work, and then just to stop and ignore that, is hard. People come to me for heat pumps because I don’t have that many gas customers, so it’s easier for me to manage.”
Dan White added: “A favourite of mine is normalisation. A good example of this is 55 degree flow appearing in Building Regs. If every heating engineer is thinking of 55 degree flows, then the back bedroom and the downstairs loo radiator would suddenly be undersized and needs addressing. That is exactly the same process that you’re going through with a 55 degree flow heat pump. There is no difference anymore. They are normalised and if we can get there, the barriers fall and the fears fall and you’re then into substituting electrons for gas, rather than low temperature for high temperature, and that’s a much easier conversation I believe it’s something that we’ve got to push towards.”
InstallerFESTIVAL was supported by industry leading sponsors: Band of Builders, Conex Bänninger, CIPHE, Corgi, CT1, Danfoss, Fernox, Lawton Tubes, NIBE, Powered Now, Refresh, Samsung Climate Solutions, Wavin and Worcester Bosch.
